NBA Draft: Is Rose the One?

Since the NCAA basketball tournament ended there has been a lot of talk about Derrick Rose being the top prospect in the draft.  But, is he the right guy to take if you think there is a dominant/elite big man in this year’s talent pool?

There is a reason why Greg Oden was drafted ahead of Kevin Durant as the top pick last year. You stand a better chance of winning with a dynamic/dominating big man than you do with a dynamic/dominating perimeter player. Just look at recent history. Who has won the lion’s share of the NBA Championships since Jordan hung them up? Of the last 9 NBA Champions 8 of them featured either Tim Duncan or Shaq in a prominent role. The last 3 Spurs Championship teams featured Tony Parker at the point who is a very good but not an elite player at PG and Avery Johnson captained the first championship run and he was just a facilitator for guys like Duncan and Robinson to do their thing.

Shaq’s teams have never featured an elite PG either. He has by-and-large won with teams featuring a dominant combo guard like Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant.

As one goes back over the history of the league really only Isiah and Jordan are the only two players to win multiple championships without the services of an All Star caliber low post player and of the two Isiah is the only PG and those Bulls teams merely had someone who could hit open jumpers at the point and help bring the ball up the floor.

The Rockets had Hakeem and did it with Kenny Smith and Sam Cassell at the point and Riley’s Lakers had Kareem.  The Celtics had McHale and Parrish and DJ at the point.  I know there is a strong sentiment for out there for Dennis Johnson being in the Hall of Fame, but the point being here is that he was not an elite offensive weapon.  Most of Johnson’s advocates point to the defense he played against opposing point guards as the primary reason he should be enshrined anyway.

Ultimately, over the past 30 years only 2 PGs who were ever considered to be elite players in the league have won championships that being Isiah and Magic. The point being is you don’t need a PG who is an elite player in the league to win in the NBA you do need someone under the basket a-la Duncan, Hakeem, Shaq, Kareem, Moses, Parish, McHale or a dominant wing player a-la Kobe, MJ, D-Wade if you want to win. An elite PG will get you into the postseason and in contention to win but without a great big man your chances of winning are pretty slim.

The NBA has always been, for the most part, a big man’s league and without one you just don’t consistently win in the playoffs. That is why if you think Kevin Love or Micheal Beasley have the potential to be elite big men in the league you take them. That is why Oden was taken over Durant. The odds of winning a championship are slimmer building around a Kevin Durant than they are building around a Greg Oden.

Given the current landscape of the NBA and who is playing where I would say that once Duncan is gone and retired look for Portland and Orlando to start their ascent to the top of the standings and start contending for championships as they appear to have the two best young big men in the game right now.  Of course it remains to be seen how Oden comes back from his knee injury.  I think we can also throw the Lakers into the mix as long as Andrew Bynum makes a full recovery from his knee problems.  After that LeBron James and Chris Paul are the only two non-big men I see as being capable of carrying a team to the promised land without the assistance of an elite big man.