Sizing up the NBA Free Agency Market

Free agency started today with the Sixers, Grizzlies, and Warriors having the most money to spend. Here is a list of available free agents:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/s…2008FreeAgents

There is not a whole lot to be excited about with this year’s group.  Elton Brand, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, and Corey Maggette are about the only real difference makers available on the un-restricted list.

Davis and Maggette are as good as gone.  Davis opted out because he is probably still upset over being benched for the entire second half in a late season game against the Suns.  Besides, the Warriors really see restricted free agent Monta Ellis as the future anyway and they would rather match any offer he gets in lieu of placating Davis and giving him the money that he wants.  Davis is supposedly lobbying for a sign-and-trade that would send him to the Knicks though I don’t know what the Knicks could offer aside from potential picks and Marbury’s contract which expires after the upcoming season.

Maggette has supposedly butted heads with Dunleavy since day one and I doubt he whas any interest in staying with the Clippers.  It is being rumored that Orlando is his top choice as of right now but the Magic would have to agree to do a sign-and-trade in order to fit him under the cap and I don’t really see who they would be willing to part with at this point to get him.

Brand supposedly is intent on staying in LA but the Sixers are supposedly going to make a competitive offer to see if they cannot lure him ot Philly.  Although if you are content to stay with the Clippers then why opt out?  Why not make an attempt to negotiate a contract extension if that is where you truly want to be.  If both parties are truly committed to each other then this should not be an issue, right?

Arenas supposedly wants a max deal and it was being reported on SportsCenter last night that the Wizards are willing to give him $100 mil over 6 years.  Arenas is a bit of a dicey proposition though.  When healthy he is as good of a scorer as there is in the league, unfortunately he was only healthy enough to appear in 13 games last year.  Do you take the risk of signing him to a big deal hoping his knee gets back to where he can give you 38 to 40 minutes a night or do you try to sign him to shorter contract? 

One name of interest to keep an eye on from the unrestricted list is Gerald Green.  He is only 22 and looked poised to have a breakout year after averaging 10 points in 22 minutes a game coming off the bench for the Celtics in the ‘06/’07 season.  He got buried on the bench in Minnesota and never got the chance to show what he could do out there. He could easily be a 15-20 ppg scorer on the right team next year and he could end up being a steal of a signing for someone since he is going to command relatively low salary.

The restriced list has a few more intriguing names with the likes of Andre Igoudala, Josh Smith, Emeka Okafor, Jose Calderon, Luol Deng, Monta Ellis, and Ben Gordon on the list.

Igoudala may be the best of the bunch here and according to ESPN’s Chad Ford he is coveted by the Grizzlies, though I have to think that has changed a bit after last week’s draft.  They look to have Mayo and Gay playing the 2 and 3 respectively next year so signing Igoudala to a deal worth in the neighborhood of $10 mil a year makes no sense given the big need to find someone to play under the rim.  I suspect the interest in him has waned a bit given his overwhelmingly mediocre performance against Detroit in the playoffs.

The Sixers are supposedly going to make a run at Smith if they cannot lure Brand away from the Clippers.

Since Okafor is the only legit post player they have the Bobcats will surely match any offer that comes Okafor’s way unless they are truly intent on blowing this all up and trying to land the top pick in next summer’s draft.

Given that the Raptors just agreed to move T. J. Ford to Indy they will surely match any offer made to Calderon.

Given that Ellis has only gotten better every year he has been in the league, is only 22, and Davis has one foot out the door the Warriors will certainly match any offer Ellis gets.

The Bulls will likely make every effort to hang onto Deng just because he plays the 3 and plays defense. My guess on Gordon is that they will move him with a sign-and-trade deal.  With Hughes and Hinrich already under contract and the addition of Rose to the mix they don’t really have a strong need for Gordon and I see them packaging him with one of their young forwards like Noah or Thomas in an effort to secure a more established post player/rebounder.  Keeping Gordon around would be a bad idea given his past history for complaining about not getting enough minutes or touches.