Initial Thoughts on the ‘08 NBA Draft

The Bulls still need to make some moves for the Rose pick to work for them.  I still think Micheal Beasley made more sense from a need perspective.  They need to leverage Hinrich or Gordon to get some frontcourt help otherwise they will continue to be a fringe playoff team at best.  The frontcourt of Deng, Gooden, Nocioni, Noah, Aaron Gray, and Tyrus Thomas strikes fear in the hearts of nobody.  As it stands right now they are looking at their top 3 paid players being bench players and now have a logjam at the guard position with Hinrich, Larry Hughes, and Ben Gordon and unless they do something they will be counting on someone like Noah, Gray, Cedric Simmons, or Thomas to step their game up and be able to give them 30-35 productive minutes a game.

I am intrigued by the moves Boston made.  Ainge is either going to come away looking like a genius for grabbing J. R. Giddens and Bill Walker or a fool for taking a wildcard like Giddens in the first.  Giddens is an amazing talent but he comes with a ton of off-court baggage.  Walker comes as a second rounder so there is nothing to lose on him and I think he has the chops to be a quality player if he stays healthy.

I don’t understand Memphis’ thinking at all unless they are going to be flipping someone for a big man.  Kevin Love may never be anything special but he is probably, at the very least, an upgrade over Darko.  Darrell Arthur is a nice talent but he is not much of a rebounder and Memphis needs someone who is going to hang and bang under the basket for them and Arthur is not going to be that guy.  Between Gay and Miller the Grizz had plenty of perimeter scoring and with plenty of point guards in the fold already I am just not sure how Mayo significantly improves this team.  They basically gave up an elite 3-point shooter and low post help for another scorer.

On the flipside I love the move for the Wolves.  Sure neither Love or Jefferson is the ideal size for a center but it gives them the opportunity to let Jefferson play some at the PF slot where he is more suited to play and they pick up Mike Miller who gives them the elite perimeter shooter they have been lacking for a few years now.  Minnesota was going to have to figure out what to do with the 3-headed monster of Foye/McCants/Mayo so moving Mayo solves that problem as that may not have played out so well if McCants or Foye are healthy and losing minutes to Mayo.

NBA Draft: Some Early Thoughts on the Top 5

With the NBA pre-draft camp going on in Orlando this week and as we head into June it is that time of year to start looking at the NBA draft.  As we get closer to the draft the general consensus seems to be that Derrick Rose and Micheal Beasley are the top two players in the draft with O. J. Mayo and Brook Lopez fighting it out for the 3rd slot.

Rose seems to be gaining momentum as the #1 guy, but, based on who the Bulls currently have on their roster Beasley makes the most basketball sense because the most glaring need Chicago has is a guy who can hang and bang and provide scoring and rebounding in the low post.  Adding Rose to that roster makes the Bulls look more like the Knicks than anything else.  Chicago currently has oodles of talent that can score and handle the ball at the 1,2, and 3 positions right now. 

If Paxson decides Rose is the guy then he needs to move some other guys around to accomodate him and try to sure up the interior game that has been keeping them from making a serious playoff run the past few years. Rose makes sense from the standpoint that he is a local product and arguably the best talent in the draft this year and if the Bulls take him he will keep butts in the seats and sell merchandise.

NBA Draft: Where will J. J. Hickson and Ty Lawson Land?

With the draft quickly approaching and since I live in ACC country I thought I would take a look at where two intriguing prospects from this area (Raleigh-Durham), J. J. Hickson and Ty Lawson, may end up going.  For what it is worth both Yahoo! Sports has Lawson going to New Orleans at 27, NBADraft.net has him going to Memphis at 28, ESPN’s Chad Ford originally had Denver taking him at 20 but has since dropped him out of the first round, and SI’s Ian Thomsen has him going to the Pistons who own the 29th pick. 

Of the 4 Ford’s forecast of him going to Denver and Thomsen’s pick of him going to Detroit make the most sense to me on Lawson.  For the life of me I cannot think of a reason why NO would spend a top pick on Lawson when they already have Mike James and Janerro Pargo who can back Paul up at the point.  Ty Lawson is strictly a PG so why draft someone who is only needed for 10-15 minutes a game?  They are better off finding combo guards who can play the point in a pinch or for short stretches of time as Paul is going to be on the floor 36 to 40 minutes almost every night.

NBA Draft 2005 Revisited (1-10)

1. Milwaukee Bucks: Andrew Bogut, C.  I was one of those who thought Bogut was a bit overrated in college and looked like an elite prospect due to playing against lesser competition.  Coming out of college Bogut was stiff and unathletic and that has hindered him to a degree in the NBA.  While Bogut has not lived up to the expectations that come along with being the top pick in the NBA draft I would not call him a bust either.  In the pantheon of top picks there have been worse than Bogut.  After all his scoring average has steadily increased from 9.4 to to 12.3 to 14.1 points per game and his rebounding has gone from 7 to 8.8 to 9.7 per game and he has developed into a pretty good shot blocker knocking away just under two per game in his third season.  He has a career .527 field goal percentage and he looks like he is going to be a guy who eventually gives your team 15 to 18 points per game and 9 to 11 rebounds per game which is nothing to sneeze at it just is not the production you expect from a big man who goes number one.  Grade: B-.

2. Atlanta Hawks: Marvin Williams, F.  I never understood this pick by the Hawks given that they already had Josh Childress and Josh Smith on the roster and their true need was a franchise PG and there was tons of elite talent at the position in this draft.  After a shaky rookie season Williams is starting to emerge as a quality player and is beginning to show some of the reasons why he was so highly regarded when he came out.  However, he still has yet to show he is going to be an elite player in the league.  He is a solid scorer but is still the third option behind Smith and Joe Johnson and is probably the 4th option now that Mike Bibby is there.  He does not have a 3-point shot to speak of and does not rebound particularly well for a 6′ 9″ forward.  Grade: B-.
3. Utah Jazz: Deron Williams, PG.  The Jazz had the pick of the PG litter when it came to their pick and it is hard to argue with how this turned out for them even though Chris Paul has turned out to be the better PG.  Williams has quickly developed into an elite NBA point guard already averaging 19 points and 10.6 assists per game.  He shoots over 50% from the field and is already a good shooter from behind the arc.  There is not much he does not do for the Jazz from the PG position.  Grade: A-. (Only because they missed on Paul.)

4. New Orleans Hornets: Chris Paul, PG.  Is head and shoulders above the rest of the players in this class and won the Rookie of the Year averaging 16.1 points, 7.8 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game.  Paul is arguably the best point man in the league just three years into his career.  He has lead the Hornets to the top of the Western Conference standings and is drawing comparisons to Isiah Thomas due to his hard nosed style of play and the way he elevates his entire team around him.  Paul has the ability to lead the league in scoring if he wants to, but, like Thomas he realizes how much better his team is when he is setting up his teammates around them.  Paul currently leads the league in assists and steals per game while scoring 21.1 points per game.  Grade: A.

5. Charlotte Bobcats: Raymond Felton, PG.  While Felton has not been nearly as successful as the two point guards taken before him he still holds his own out there.  He has struggled with his shooting which was to be expected in the early going but his 3-point shooting seems to be regressing as he has gone from shooting .358 his rookie year to .284 in his third season.  He is a solid scorer and good assist man who struggles when he is prevented from running the floor or being able to penetrate to the basket.  Grade: B-.

6. Portland Trail Blazers: Martell Webster, G/F.  This one was definitely a head scratcher when the Blazers made it given that players of Webster’s ilk have never been terribly successful coming straight from high school.  This pick is just now starting to pay some dividends for the Blazers as he has finally secured a starting spot and scores 10.7 points a game making his living being a long range bomber.  Webster still has a long way to go before the Blazers can feel justified with making this pick though.  Grade: C+.

7. Toronto Raptors: Charlie Villanueva, F.  Initially I thought this was a horrible pick given how Villanueva never came remotely close to living up to the hype he received at UConn.  However, this turned out fairly well for the Raptors as after a surprisingly strong rookie season that saw him score 13 points and grab 6.4 rebounds per game they promptly dealt him to the Bucks for T. J. Ford who was the PG the Raptors had been lacking since Damon Stoudamire left for Portland.  Unfortunately for the Bucks Villanueva has struggled to stay healthy and has yet to elevate his game to the next level after such a promising rookie campaign.  Grade: B-.

8. New York Knicks: Channing Frye, C.  Like Villanueva, Frye had an unexpectedly strong rookie season scoring 12.3 points and grabbing 5.8 rebounds per game.  Frye’s rookie season was so strong that the Knicks thought they finally had another big man to build around, that was until Isiah took over the reins and Frye wallowed under his coaching.  He has since been dealt to the Blazers and continues to struggle to find the productivity he had during his rookie season.  Grade: C.

9. Golden State Warriors: Ike Diogu, F.  Yet another player who looked like a budding star during his rookie season.  This pick was initially panned by most as Diogu was seen as a guy not quite big enough to play power forward and not quite quick or athletic enough to play small forward.  He raised a lot of eyebrows averaging 7 points and 3.3 rebounds in just 14.9 minutes per game.  But, after failing to earn more minutes during his second season he was dealt to Indiana where he has wallowed on the bench.  Grade: C.

10. Los Angeles Lakers: Andrew Bynum, C.  This one raised a few eyebrows as well when it was made.  Bynum was considered a very raw talent and a project player that would take a few years to develop and could go either way as there were a lot of questions about his dedication to conditioning and whether he had the drive to be a star in the NBA.  After two fairly forgettable seasons Bynum was having a breakout season averaging 13.1 points and 10.2 rebounds per game when he hurt his knee.  Bynum appears to have all of the makings of being the next big time low post player but it remains to be seen how he comes back from theis first dose of adversity.  Grade: B.

Early Entrants for the 2008 NBA Draft: Part III

-Anthony Randolph (LSU) – A good looking power forward prospect.  Randolph had a strong freshman season for the Tigers and is long, lean, and athletic.  He is a good rebounder and shot blocker with a solid mid-range jump shot.  Randolph checks in at around 220 which means he needs to add a bit of bulk if he wants to succeed at the next level.  Should be a lottery pick if he stays in the draft and could sneak into the top 5 depending on how his pre-draft workouts go.

-Marreese Speights (Florida) – Speights has the build (6-10/245) that NBA scouts love in a low post player.  He played center in college and likely translates to PF in the NBA given that he is only 6-10.  He defends well and is athletic for a guy his size, but he needs to work on his mid-range game and conditioning has been a huge issue with him.  He only played 24.3 minutes a game this past season for Florida and any team looking at him is going to want him to be able to play at least 30 minutes a game.  But since NBA teams love guys built like him he stands a good chance at being a lottery pick as long as he can show teams he is in good shape.

-Ronald Steele (Alabama) – I have a hard time seeing him staying in the draft given that he sat out the entire season with knee problems.  He is likely looking to get in on some of the NBA workouts so he has a feel for where his game stands against his peers.  He probably needs to come back to Alabama for another year to show NBA scouts that his injury problems are behind him and that he can handle playing 30-35 minutes a game.

-Robert Vaden (UAB) – Can shoot it from anywhere on the floor and is a 40+ shooter from behind the arc.  However he is not especially adept at creating his own shot and scoring off the dribble which puts him in the second tier of scoring guards behind guys like O. J. Mayo and Eric Gordon which means he is a long shot to be a lottery pick and a borderline first round talent.  He has the size teams like but lacks the agility and quickness needed to be a starting two-guard in the NBA.  As it stands right now he projects as a player who comes off the bench to provide 3-point scoring and not much else.

-Terrence Williams (Louisville) – This is likely just a case of a junior looking for feedback from the NBA to see what he needs to work on during his senior season to improve his status.  If he stays in the draft he will be a long shot to even be drafted as his offense just is not there quite yet.  He is a good rebounder and passer but struggles to shoot consistently.  He has the size and athleticism to play at the next level he just needs to find some offensive consistency.

NBA Draft: 2006 Revisted (21-30)

21. Phoenix Suns – Rajon Rondo, PG.  The Suns ended up taking Rondo and dealing him to Boston as part of a trade agreement.  Rondo has emerged as a budding young star as the PG for the team with the league’s best regular season record.  Rondo gives the Celtics 10.6 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.2 rebounds per game.  Rondo is shooting a respectable .487 from the field but he really needs to improve on his 3-point shot (27.8%) and free throw shooting (61.4%) if he wants to elevate his game to the next level.  Grade: B.

22. New Jersey Nets – Marcus Williams, PG.  Williams was drafted by the Nets with the notion in mind that he would be Jason Kidd’s heir apparent when he was ready to retire.  Williams showed some flashes of what he could do during his rookie season, but given that the Nets dealt Kidd for a much younger Devin Harris it appears as though the Nets have given up on Williams as their PG of the future for the time being.  He could still develop into a quality PG in the league it just probably will not be as a member of the New Jersey Nets.  Grade: C-.

23. New Jersey Nets – Josh Boone, PF/C.  I was never a big Josh Boone fan when he was at UConn.  He just never seemed to live up to all of the hype bestowed on him in college.  However he has emerged as a solid low post presence for the Nets winning a starting job and giving the Nets 8.2 points and 7.3 rebounds per contest.  He has not been the shot blocking presence for the Nets that he was in college but the Nets will take his rebounding and solid field goal percentage in exchange.  Grade: B-.

24. Memphis Grizzlies – Kyle Lowry, PG.  Has turned into a good pickup for the Grizzlies.  Lowry gives the Grizz 9.3 points, 3.6 assists, and 3.1 rebounds per game off the bench.  He could probably start for some teams in the NBA if he ever develops a 3-point shot.  Grade: B-.

25. Cleveland Cavaliers – Shannon Brown, PG.  Brown has the size NBA teams like in a PG, but he has done little to justify his existence in the league.  Shoots just .369 from the field and .291 from beyond the arc and has more turnovers (37) than assists (27) in his career.  Grade: D.

26. Los Angeles Lakers – Jordan Farmar, G.  Farmar has emerged as a 3-point threat off the bench for the Lakers (36.8%) averaging 9.1 points per game.  The main knock on him right now is his mediocre free throw shooting.  Grade: B-.

27. Phoenix Suns – Sergio Rodriguez, PG.  One of the last guys on the Suns’ bench who sees little time behind Nash and Barbosa.  Rodriguez is a good ball handler who would probably be a quality backup PG on a lot of other teams in the NBA.  Given that he is only 21 he still has a few years to find a niche on another team.  Grade: C-.

28. Dallas Mavericks – Maurice Ager, G.  Yet another in a long line of Michigan State guards who did not live up to the hype coming out of college.  Granted he did not get many minutes while in Dallas but when he did he not produce at all shooting only .297 from the field and .578 from the line.  Being dealt to New Jersey has done little to enhance his status in the league.  Grade: D-.

29. New York Knicks – Mardy Collins, G.  Has not given the Knicks a whole lot.  He does not shoot well from anywhere on the floor, does not rebound, nor does he handle the ball exceptionally well.  If not for his guaranteed contract he probably would not even be in the league.  Grade: D-.

30. Portland Trailblazers – Joel Freeland.  Has yet to suit up for the Blazers.  Grade: Incomplete.

NBA Draft: 2006 Revisted (11-20)

11. Orlando Magic – J. J. Redick, SG. Redick has struggled to stay healthy and has seen limited action with the Magic in his first two. Redick had back surgery the summer after being drafted and has never been able to work his way into the rotation for the Magic. He has shot the ball well when given the chance but he has not earned enough playing time to show what he can do. He could still develop into a “hired gun” off the bench if given the chance to do so. Grade: D.

12. New Orleans Hornets – Hilton Armstrong, PF/C. The Hornets drafted Armstrong on the notion that he would develop into a Tyson Chandler type of player that would be able to defend the low post and grab 10 boards a game and then promptly went out and traded for Tyson Chandler leaving Armstrong to wallow away on the bench in obscurity. Even when he has played he has not shown the Hornets much averaging only 9;6 points and 8.1 rebounds per 36 minutes played. Armstrong was a late bloomer who basically got drafted by coming from nowhere to have a strong senior season. Grade: D.

13. Philadelphia 76ers – Thabo Sefolosha, SG/SF. The Sixers drafted Sefolosha and promptly traded him to Chicago for Rodney Carney. Sefolosha is a good defender who can pop the three every now and then but does not give you much else. Grade: C.

14. Utah Jazz – Ronnie Brewer, SG/SF. After a rather uneventful rookie season Brewer claimed the starting job as Utah’s shooting guard. Brewer’s jump shot is a work in progress but he is adept at running the floor and getting to the basket averaging 12.1 points on .554 shooting from the field as well as playing solid perimeter defense. Grade: B.

15. New Orleans Hornets – Cedric Simmons, PF/C. The Hornets took another chance on a big man who came out of nowhere to have a productive season before jumping to the NBA. Simmons was clearly a work in progress when he declared for the draft but his stock went through the roof after he outplayed Aldridge in the NCAA tournament that year and he felt he had to take the money and run so he could help out his family. Unfortunately for him he has shown himself to be in way over his head in the NBA and his first contract may be his last unless something changes drastically for him. Grade: D-.

16. Chicago Bulls – Rodney Carney, SG/SF. Traded to Philly for Sefolosha on draft night. Carney has had his moments and even briefly worked his way into the Sixers starting lineup during his rookie year. He gives the Sixers some athleticism off the bench and scores about 6 points per game. The addition of Thaddeus Young from the ‘07 draft has cut into Carney’s minutes in Philly and he appears destined to be a backup for the time being. Grade: C.

17. Indiana Pacers – Shawne Williams, F. The Pacers took Carney’s college teammate next and he has developed into a quality bench player for Indiana. Williams gives Indy a big athletic forward who can stroke the 3 off the bench. He currently averages 7 in 15 minutes a game off the bench. Grade: C+.

18. Washington Wizards – Oleksiy Pecherov. Has remained overseas since being drafted and has yet to play in the NBA. Grade: Incomplete.

19. Sacramento Kings – Quincy Douby, SG. Gives the Kings about 11 minutes a game off the bench and little else really. Grade: D.

20. New York Knicks – Renaldo Balkman, F. Isiah Thomas was chided for this selection and rightly so, Balkman was considered by most to be, at best, a second round pick. Balkman is a servicable NBA player who gives some defense and a bit of rebounding but little else. Grade: F (only because this was way too high for a guy of Balkman’s caliber and he could have been had in the second round).

NBA Draft: 2006 Revisited (1-10)

1. Toronto Raptors – Andrea Bargnani, PF. The jury is still out on Bargnani. At this time last year Bargnani looked like a budding star scoring 14.9 ppg while shooting .456 from the field and .403 from 3-point range after the break. Bargnani has struggled mightily this year while battling through some nagging injuries and his productivity has not progressed the way I thought it was going to at the beginning of the year. His scoring has dropped slightly from 11.6 to 10.2 per game and his field goal percentage has dipped from .427 to .391. Given he is only 22 there is still a lot of room for growth for Bargnani and there is no reason to think he still cannot be a star player in the near future. Grade: B-

2. Chicago Bulls – LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C. Something tells me the Bulls probably wish they had not dealt this guy away for Tyrus Thomas on draft day. After struggling through a rookie season marred with injuries Aldridge has flourished in his second season in the league scoring 17.7 points per game for the Trail Blazers. The only real knock on the guy is he does not rebound as well as he should for a big man pushing 7 feet tall. Grade: B

3. Charlotte Bobcats – Adam Morrison, SG/SF. Morrison has missed the entire season due to injury. He struggled to find any consistency in his game during his rookie year. He would run off strings of games where he would score 15 or more points 4 or 5 games in a row and then would go 2 or 3 games without breaking double digits. Morrison is probably never going to be an elite player in the NBA, but he could still be one of those 2nd or 3rd options that gives you 15-18 ppg or possibly a guy who comes off the bench to give you instant offense. Grade: Incomplete.