Don’t Look Now: Assessing the Early Entries in the NFL Draft on Offense

Don’t look now but…

The early entry list to the NFL draft is complete and it is time to discuss where some of them may go. The first round looks to be littered with more than its share underclassmen. Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson is regarded by many as the top player in the draft and many are predicting LSU’s JaMarcus Russell to be the second QB taken and some think he may end up going to Oakland with the top pick. At the very least he should be top five pick as Oakland, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland could all conceivably take a QB with their top pick.

California’s Marshawn Lynch and Oklahoma’s Adrian Peterson should be the top two running backs taken in the draft. Peterson is physically the most talented back in the draft and the best pure runner available. Injuries are a concern however. Peterson could go as high as number three, or four depending on where Cleveland and Tampa end up, if Cleveland decides on a running back. But it seems unlikely as Cleveland seems more likely to take a QB or Joe Thomas if he is available. However, Peterson likely will not last longer than 8th as Houston is in dire need of talent at running back. Minnesota could potentially be interested as well.

Lynch has exceptional speed to go with excellent hands and is the best all around back available in the draft. He should go somewhere in the middle of the first round and with Ahman Green not under contract for next season Green Bay seems to be a good fit for a back whose skill-set is similar to that of Green’s.

Notre Dame’s Darius Walker and Ohio State’s Antonio Pittman have decided to test their wares at the next level as well. Walker is a good all around back but does not possess that elite breakaway speed teams look for in a back. He should go on the first day as he is an excellent reciever out of the backfield.

The line on Pittman is that he probably would not have significantly improved himself in the eyes of scouts so he may as well have come out now. He has decent size but could stand to bulk up a bit but lacks the top end speed.

Don’t Look Now: My Take on the BCS Title Game

Boy, oh boy is the media eating some crow today or what?  The one thing about all of this is I am tired of hearing about how the extended layoff may have hurt Ohio State.  Look at it this way, of the 10 teams that played in conference championship games only 3 won their bowl games: Florida, Southern Miss and Central Michigan. For the sake of this argument we need to remove Southern Miss and Ohio from the equation as they faced each other in a bowl game and both played in a conference championship game.So, really there is no advantage to having a shorter layoff for bowl games as the teams with the extra week or so off generally won their games.  Besides, I think it was OSU’s own Kirk Herbstreit who went on record saying that after two or three weeks it is really a moot point anyway as that is when teams start to lose their edge.  So, I don’t buy that argument at all.

On to the game.  Boy, did Troy Smith get knocked down a peg.   All we heard the last week or so was how he was this year’s ‘it’ player, this year’s Vince Young and he looked rather ordinary out there against Florida’s pass rush. There was some sentiment that Smith could be a darkhorse first round pick in April, but after last night’s game I don’t think that will happening.  To be blunt Smith almost looked as though he was a freshman QB being thrown to the wolves last night.  Ohio State clearly did not anticipate Florida’s elite defensive speed.   It almost seems as though once Ginn went out of the game Tressel did not know what to do next.

Don’t Look Now: Assessing Early Entries in the NFL Draft

Now that bowl season is wrapping up and with the deadline looming college players are starting to enter their names into the NFL Draft. So far the biggest names to declare are Georgia Tech wide-out Calvin Johnson and LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell.

Pro scouts have been drooling over Johnson since he first set foot on a field for the Yellow Jackets. At a reported 6′ 5″/235 lbs. Johnson has the size that NFL teams like in recievers. Couple that with a reported sub 4.5 40 time and he will most assuredly be the top receiver taken and, if all goes well, should be top 5 pick.

Russell was flying under the radar screen coming into the season. Brian Brohm and Chad Henne were considered to be the cream of the crop in the junior class as far as QBs go. But, after an outstanding junior season and a stellar game against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl Russell will surely be no worse than the 2nd QB taken and could go top 5 given that Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, and Tampa all have question marks at the QB spot. He has built similarly to Byron Leftwitch, but he is much more athletic and mobile than Leftwitch and he does not have the long windup delivery that QBs of his build tend to have.

South Carolina wide-out Sidney Rice declared over the weekend and should be a first rounder as well. He is listed at 6′ 4″/200 lbs. so he has the size the NFL likes and he supposedly runs in the 4.4 range in the 40-yard dash.

Don’t Look Now: 12/07/2006

Don’t look now but…

The big time coaching vacancies are beginning to be filled. It is being reported that North Carolina State is set to announce Tom O’Brien as its new Head Coach as soon as Friday. ESPN is reporting that Randy Shannon is going to be promoted to the head gig at Miami and that West Virginia’s Rich Rodriguez has been offered a six-year deal for $12 million plus the $2 million buyout for his current deal from Alabama.

O’Brien is a solid hire by NC State. He has established Boston College as consistent 8 or 9 win team each year and has won his last six bowl games. He will bring some much needed discipline, organization, and consistency to a program that muddled its way through the past three seasons. One of the major plusses is the stability of his coaching staff whereas it seemed as though Chuck Amato was hiring two new assistants on a yearly basis. O’Brien’s teams have always been smart and disciplined which is something that has been lacking in Raleigh since Amato took over the reins of the program.

Shannon being elevated is a nice choice. He has been the architect and chief recruiter of the stellar defensive units Miami has fielded over the past few seasons. He has also been an assistant at Miami since 1991, leaving briefly to work for the Dolphins from 1998-2000, so he already knows the area in terms of recruiting.

The Heisman Finalists have been announced: Ohio State’s Troy Smith, Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn, and Arkansas’ Darren McFadden. It seems a mere formality as Smith should win this one going away.

If LSU is supposedly the best football team in the SEC this year then what does that make Les Miles? I am growing tired of hearing about how great LSU is given they could not even manage an appearance in the SEC Championship Game.

Don’t Look Now: 11/25/2006

Don’t look now but…

As was expected the University of Miami fired its head football coach Larry Coker.  Now the search as well as the wild speculation begins as to who will be his replacement.  Rutgers’ Greg Schiano is rumored to be the top choice but it remains to be seen if he has any interest in the gig.  Former Hurricanes assistant Tommy Tuberville, alum Mark Richt, and Steve Spurrier have already said they have no interest in being the next Head Coach atMiami.  Current Defensive Coordinator Randy Shannon is rumored to be in the running as well.  It should be interesting to see how this unfolds over the next couple of weeks.

Arkansas lost its potential stake in the BCS Championship game by going down to LSU on Friday in an exciting game.  Arkansas probably wins the game if they get any kind of productivity in the passing game.  Quarterback Casey Dick looked as though he was making the first start of his career and could never get anything going.  Don’t cry for Arkansas though as Super Sophs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones will be back next year so another trip to the SEC title game is not out of the question for next year.

Keep an eye out for Arkansas’ McFadden, Jones, and Marcus Monk on Sunday afternoons in the very near future.  McFadden and Jones both have the size and speed to play at the next level.  Since Arkansas has not had a quarterback to speak of the past couple of years Monk has sort of flown under the radar screen but the 6’ 6” junior had a breakout season this year establishing himself as someone the NFL scouts are keeping an eye on.

Meanwhile Texas may have lost its spot in the Big 12 title game by losing to a feisty Texas A&M team 12-7.  Texas continually shot itself in the foot with turnovers and not being able to convert on 3^rd down while A&M’s 10 penalties and inability to throw the ball downfield kept the Longhorns in the contest.  Texas A&M freshman Mike Goodson is definitely someone to keep an eye on.  He showed off his blazing speed on a 41 yard touchdown burst and averages 7.1 yards per carry.  At six feet tall he should be able to add some muscle to his 192 pound frame in preparation for the NFL.  Texas can still go to the title game if Oklahoma State upsets Oklahoma on Saturday.

Texas’ late season swoon losing to a mediocre Kansas State and at home to Texas A&M makes one wonder if Mack Brown is back to being Mack Brown and if Vince Young led them to the National Title last season despite Mack Brown being his head coach.  Brown was notorious for late season swoons and not being able to win the big games when he was the Head Coach at North Carolina.

Don’t Look Now: 11/22/2006

Don’t look now but…

This weekend could mark the swan song of three ACC football coaches.  One has already been replaced as Butch Davis will officially replace John Bunting as UNC’s coach on Monday.  After last Saturday’s defeat at the hands of the departing Bunting North Carolina State’s faithful are calling for Chuck Amato’s head and probably rightfully so.  The team was stuck in neutral the last two seasons winning five and six games respectively and has now fallen to 3-8 and staring a 3-9 record in the face.  Amato has done a fabulous job upgrading the facilities and making NCSU a desirable program for recruits.  However the results on the field have been less than desirable and Chuck seems to have problems hanging onto his assistants.  He has had four offensive co-ordinators in his 7 years in Raleigh and always seems to be replacing two or three assistants every spring.  The third coach on the hot seat right now is Miami’s Larry Coker and he most assuredly will be gone.  The ‘Canes were expected to contend for the ACC championship and be in the BCS Title picture but are now left with needing a win in its season finale against Boston College just to become bowl eligible.  This combined with the on field riot against Florida International should all but seal Coker’s fate in Miami.

For all of the talk of ACC football being weak or mediocre this year the conference is tied with the SEC with the most 9-win teams at four and has the most teams with 8 or more wins with six.  There is a very real possiblity that the conference could end up with four 10-win teams and the only other conference that could possibly lay claim to doing so is the SEC.  The ACC also boasts five teams in the top 25 of the BCS standings and not other conference has that many.

Three years from now the Angels will likely be wondering why they gave Gary Matthews Jr. a 5-year $50 million contract.  Matthews is a nice player and is coming off of a great season that saw him hit .313 with 19 homers, but is a guy who is a career .263 hitter who averages 14 homers per 162 games played over his career really worth $10 million per season at the age of 32?

The Giants are showing the signs of an impending implosion.  Plaxico appeared to be dogging it on some of his routes Monday Night and now Tiki is sounding off in the press about only getting 10 carries agains the Jags and is now questioning the playcalling.  I would not be at all surprised if this team only ends up with 8 or 9 wins and misses the playoffs this year.

Don’t Look Now: 11/20/2006

Don’t look now but…

 Is there any question that LaDanian Tomlinson is the best player in the NFL right now?  Tomlinson’s four touchdowns last night against the Broncos puts him at 22 for the season a mere six shy of the 28 Shaun Alexander scored to set the record last season.  Tomlinson is currently on pace for 35 TDs which would shatter Alexander’s record and at the pace Tomlinson has scored 19 TDs over the past six games it is not out of the question that he approach 40 before the season is out.  Tomlinson has bolted past Peyton Manning in the race for the league’s MVP Award.

Philip Rivers is emerging as one of the best young quarterbacks in the league right now.  His coming out party came at the expense of the Bengals last week rallying the Chargers from a 28-7 halftime deficit to defeat the Bengals.  He struggled a bit in the early going against the Broncos this week but he pulled it together to rally the Chargers from a 24-7 3rd quarter deficit for yet another thrilling victory.  With each passing Chargers victory the decision to trade Manning for Rivers and two picks that amounted to Shawn Merriman and Nate Keading is turning out to be a steal for the Chargers given that Eli Manning continues to struggle in New York.  To think this is the second time in recent history that the Chargers dealt out of the number one selection to take someone of percieved lesser value and it paid off royally for them.  Remember when the Chargers passed on the ballyhooed Micheal Vick and traded down in favor of LaDanian Tomlinson?  Ask Falcons fans who got the better end of that deal.

Don’t be surprised if Phillip Rivers’ alma mater has a new head football coach next year.  The Wolfpack continued its decension to the bottom of the ACC Standings by losing another game that appeared winnable on paper to North Carolina.  After back-to-back thrilling victories against Boston College and Florida State the ‘Pack appeared poised to make a serious run at the ACC title this year only to have the wheels fall off the cart and lose the next six games.  The ‘Pack currently stand at 3-8 and with its season finale looming against a vastly improved East Carolina squad a 3-9 season seems imminent.  This does not bode well for a coach whose team was expected to go bowling this year and appeared poised to be a serious threat in conference play.