Sizing up the NBA Free Agency Market

Free agency started today with the Sixers, Grizzlies, and Warriors having the most money to spend. Here is a list of available free agents:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/s…2008FreeAgents

There is not a whole lot to be excited about with this year’s group.  Elton Brand, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, and Corey Maggette are about the only real difference makers available on the un-restricted list.

Davis and Maggette are as good as gone.  Davis opted out because he is probably still upset over being benched for the entire second half in a late season game against the Suns.  Besides, the Warriors really see restricted free agent Monta Ellis as the future anyway and they would rather match any offer he gets in lieu of placating Davis and giving him the money that he wants.  Davis is supposedly lobbying for a sign-and-trade that would send him to the Knicks though I don’t know what the Knicks could offer aside from potential picks and Marbury’s contract which expires after the upcoming season.

Maggette has supposedly butted heads with Dunleavy since day one and I doubt he whas any interest in staying with the Clippers.  It is being rumored that Orlando is his top choice as of right now but the Magic would have to agree to do a sign-and-trade in order to fit him under the cap and I don’t really see who they would be willing to part with at this point to get him.

Brand supposedly is intent on staying in LA but the Sixers are supposedly going to make a competitive offer to see if they cannot lure him ot Philly.  Although if you are content to stay with the Clippers then why opt out?  Why not make an attempt to negotiate a contract extension if that is where you truly want to be.  If both parties are truly committed to each other then this should not be an issue, right?

Arenas supposedly wants a max deal and it was being reported on SportsCenter last night that the Wizards are willing to give him $100 mil over 6 years.  Arenas is a bit of a dicey proposition though.  When healthy he is as good of a scorer as there is in the league, unfortunately he was only healthy enough to appear in 13 games last year.  Do you take the risk of signing him to a big deal hoping his knee gets back to where he can give you 38 to 40 minutes a night or do you try to sign him to shorter contract? 

One name of interest to keep an eye on from the unrestricted list is Gerald Green.  He is only 22 and looked poised to have a breakout year after averaging 10 points in 22 minutes a game coming off the bench for the Celtics in the ‘06/’07 season.  He got buried on the bench in Minnesota and never got the chance to show what he could do out there. He could easily be a 15-20 ppg scorer on the right team next year and he could end up being a steal of a signing for someone since he is going to command relatively low salary.

Initial Thoughts on the ‘08 NBA Draft

The Bulls still need to make some moves for the Rose pick to work for them.  I still think Micheal Beasley made more sense from a need perspective.  They need to leverage Hinrich or Gordon to get some frontcourt help otherwise they will continue to be a fringe playoff team at best.  The frontcourt of Deng, Gooden, Nocioni, Noah, Aaron Gray, and Tyrus Thomas strikes fear in the hearts of nobody.  As it stands right now they are looking at their top 3 paid players being bench players and now have a logjam at the guard position with Hinrich, Larry Hughes, and Ben Gordon and unless they do something they will be counting on someone like Noah, Gray, Cedric Simmons, or Thomas to step their game up and be able to give them 30-35 productive minutes a game.

I am intrigued by the moves Boston made.  Ainge is either going to come away looking like a genius for grabbing J. R. Giddens and Bill Walker or a fool for taking a wildcard like Giddens in the first.  Giddens is an amazing talent but he comes with a ton of off-court baggage.  Walker comes as a second rounder so there is nothing to lose on him and I think he has the chops to be a quality player if he stays healthy.

I don’t understand Memphis’ thinking at all unless they are going to be flipping someone for a big man.  Kevin Love may never be anything special but he is probably, at the very least, an upgrade over Darko.  Darrell Arthur is a nice talent but he is not much of a rebounder and Memphis needs someone who is going to hang and bang under the basket for them and Arthur is not going to be that guy.  Between Gay and Miller the Grizz had plenty of perimeter scoring and with plenty of point guards in the fold already I am just not sure how Mayo significantly improves this team.  They basically gave up an elite 3-point shooter and low post help for another scorer.

On the flipside I love the move for the Wolves.  Sure neither Love or Jefferson is the ideal size for a center but it gives them the opportunity to let Jefferson play some at the PF slot where he is more suited to play and they pick up Mike Miller who gives them the elite perimeter shooter they have been lacking for a few years now.  Minnesota was going to have to figure out what to do with the 3-headed monster of Foye/McCants/Mayo so moving Mayo solves that problem as that may not have played out so well if McCants or Foye are healthy and losing minutes to Mayo.

NBA Draft: Some Early Thoughts on the Top 5

With the NBA pre-draft camp going on in Orlando this week and as we head into June it is that time of year to start looking at the NBA draft.  As we get closer to the draft the general consensus seems to be that Derrick Rose and Micheal Beasley are the top two players in the draft with O. J. Mayo and Brook Lopez fighting it out for the 3rd slot.

Rose seems to be gaining momentum as the #1 guy, but, based on who the Bulls currently have on their roster Beasley makes the most basketball sense because the most glaring need Chicago has is a guy who can hang and bang and provide scoring and rebounding in the low post.  Adding Rose to that roster makes the Bulls look more like the Knicks than anything else.  Chicago currently has oodles of talent that can score and handle the ball at the 1,2, and 3 positions right now. 

If Paxson decides Rose is the guy then he needs to move some other guys around to accomodate him and try to sure up the interior game that has been keeping them from making a serious playoff run the past few years. Rose makes sense from the standpoint that he is a local product and arguably the best talent in the draft this year and if the Bulls take him he will keep butts in the seats and sell merchandise.

NBA Draft: Where will J. J. Hickson and Ty Lawson Land?

With the draft quickly approaching and since I live in ACC country I thought I would take a look at where two intriguing prospects from this area (Raleigh-Durham), J. J. Hickson and Ty Lawson, may end up going.  For what it is worth both Yahoo! Sports has Lawson going to New Orleans at 27, NBADraft.net has him going to Memphis at 28, ESPN’s Chad Ford originally had Denver taking him at 20 but has since dropped him out of the first round, and SI’s Ian Thomsen has him going to the Pistons who own the 29th pick. 

Of the 4 Ford’s forecast of him going to Denver and Thomsen’s pick of him going to Detroit make the most sense to me on Lawson.  For the life of me I cannot think of a reason why NO would spend a top pick on Lawson when they already have Mike James and Janerro Pargo who can back Paul up at the point.  Ty Lawson is strictly a PG so why draft someone who is only needed for 10-15 minutes a game?  They are better off finding combo guards who can play the point in a pinch or for short stretches of time as Paul is going to be on the floor 36 to 40 minutes almost every night.