Initial Thoughts on the ‘08 NBA Draft

The Bulls still need to make some moves for the Rose pick to work for them.  I still think Micheal Beasley made more sense from a need perspective.  They need to leverage Hinrich or Gordon to get some frontcourt help otherwise they will continue to be a fringe playoff team at best.  The frontcourt of Deng, Gooden, Nocioni, Noah, Aaron Gray, and Tyrus Thomas strikes fear in the hearts of nobody.  As it stands right now they are looking at their top 3 paid players being bench players and now have a logjam at the guard position with Hinrich, Larry Hughes, and Ben Gordon and unless they do something they will be counting on someone like Noah, Gray, Cedric Simmons, or Thomas to step their game up and be able to give them 30-35 productive minutes a game.

I am intrigued by the moves Boston made.  Ainge is either going to come away looking like a genius for grabbing J. R. Giddens and Bill Walker or a fool for taking a wildcard like Giddens in the first.  Giddens is an amazing talent but he comes with a ton of off-court baggage.  Walker comes as a second rounder so there is nothing to lose on him and I think he has the chops to be a quality player if he stays healthy.

I don’t understand Memphis’ thinking at all unless they are going to be flipping someone for a big man.  Kevin Love may never be anything special but he is probably, at the very least, an upgrade over Darko.  Darrell Arthur is a nice talent but he is not much of a rebounder and Memphis needs someone who is going to hang and bang under the basket for them and Arthur is not going to be that guy.  Between Gay and Miller the Grizz had plenty of perimeter scoring and with plenty of point guards in the fold already I am just not sure how Mayo significantly improves this team.  They basically gave up an elite 3-point shooter and low post help for another scorer.

On the flipside I love the move for the Wolves.  Sure neither Love or Jefferson is the ideal size for a center but it gives them the opportunity to let Jefferson play some at the PF slot where he is more suited to play and they pick up Mike Miller who gives them the elite perimeter shooter they have been lacking for a few years now.  Minnesota was going to have to figure out what to do with the 3-headed monster of Foye/McCants/Mayo so moving Mayo solves that problem as that may not have played out so well if McCants or Foye are healthy and losing minutes to Mayo.

NBA Draft: Some Early Thoughts on the Top 5

With the NBA pre-draft camp going on in Orlando this week and as we head into June it is that time of year to start looking at the NBA draft.  As we get closer to the draft the general consensus seems to be that Derrick Rose and Micheal Beasley are the top two players in the draft with O. J. Mayo and Brook Lopez fighting it out for the 3rd slot.

Rose seems to be gaining momentum as the #1 guy, but, based on who the Bulls currently have on their roster Beasley makes the most basketball sense because the most glaring need Chicago has is a guy who can hang and bang and provide scoring and rebounding in the low post.  Adding Rose to that roster makes the Bulls look more like the Knicks than anything else.  Chicago currently has oodles of talent that can score and handle the ball at the 1,2, and 3 positions right now. 

If Paxson decides Rose is the guy then he needs to move some other guys around to accomodate him and try to sure up the interior game that has been keeping them from making a serious playoff run the past few years. Rose makes sense from the standpoint that he is a local product and arguably the best talent in the draft this year and if the Bulls take him he will keep butts in the seats and sell merchandise.

NBA Draft: Is Rose the One?

Since the NCAA basketball tournament ended there has been a lot of talk about Derrick Rose being the top prospect in the draft.  But, is he the right guy to take if you think there is a dominant/elite big man in this year’s talent pool?

There is a reason why Greg Oden was drafted ahead of Kevin Durant as the top pick last year. You stand a better chance of winning with a dynamic/dominating big man than you do with a dynamic/dominating perimeter player. Just look at recent history. Who has won the lion’s share of the NBA Championships since Jordan hung them up? Of the last 9 NBA Champions 8 of them featured either Tim Duncan or Shaq in a prominent role. The last 3 Spurs Championship teams featured Tony Parker at the point who is a very good but not an elite player at PG and Avery Johnson captained the first championship run and he was just a facilitator for guys like Duncan and Robinson to do their thing.

Shaq’s teams have never featured an elite PG either. He has by-and-large won with teams featuring a dominant combo guard like Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant.

As one goes back over the history of the league really only Isiah and Jordan are the only two players to win multiple championships without the services of an All Star caliber low post player and of the two Isiah is the only PG and those Bulls teams merely had someone who could hit open jumpers at the point and help bring the ball up the floor.

NBA Draft 2005 Revisited (1-10)

1. Milwaukee Bucks: Andrew Bogut, C.  I was one of those who thought Bogut was a bit overrated in college and looked like an elite prospect due to playing against lesser competition.  Coming out of college Bogut was stiff and unathletic and that has hindered him to a degree in the NBA.  While Bogut has not lived up to the expectations that come along with being the top pick in the NBA draft I would not call him a bust either.  In the pantheon of top picks there have been worse than Bogut.  After all his scoring average has steadily increased from 9.4 to to 12.3 to 14.1 points per game and his rebounding has gone from 7 to 8.8 to 9.7 per game and he has developed into a pretty good shot blocker knocking away just under two per game in his third season.  He has a career .527 field goal percentage and he looks like he is going to be a guy who eventually gives your team 15 to 18 points per game and 9 to 11 rebounds per game which is nothing to sneeze at it just is not the production you expect from a big man who goes number one.  Grade: B-.

2. Atlanta Hawks: Marvin Williams, F.  I never understood this pick by the Hawks given that they already had Josh Childress and Josh Smith on the roster and their true need was a franchise PG and there was tons of elite talent at the position in this draft.  After a shaky rookie season Williams is starting to emerge as a quality player and is beginning to show some of the reasons why he was so highly regarded when he came out.  However, he still has yet to show he is going to be an elite player in the league.  He is a solid scorer but is still the third option behind Smith and Joe Johnson and is probably the 4th option now that Mike Bibby is there.  He does not have a 3-point shot to speak of and does not rebound particularly well for a 6′ 9″ forward.  Grade: B-.
3. Utah Jazz: Deron Williams, PG.  The Jazz had the pick of the PG litter when it came to their pick and it is hard to argue with how this turned out for them even though Chris Paul has turned out to be the better PG.  Williams has quickly developed into an elite NBA point guard already averaging 19 points and 10.6 assists per game.  He shoots over 50% from the field and is already a good shooter from behind the arc.  There is not much he does not do for the Jazz from the PG position.  Grade: A-. (Only because they missed on Paul.)

4. New Orleans Hornets: Chris Paul, PG.  Is head and shoulders above the rest of the players in this class and won the Rookie of the Year averaging 16.1 points, 7.8 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game.  Paul is arguably the best point man in the league just three years into his career.  He has lead the Hornets to the top of the Western Conference standings and is drawing comparisons to Isiah Thomas due to his hard nosed style of play and the way he elevates his entire team around him.  Paul has the ability to lead the league in scoring if he wants to, but, like Thomas he realizes how much better his team is when he is setting up his teammates around them.  Paul currently leads the league in assists and steals per game while scoring 21.1 points per game.  Grade: A.

5. Charlotte Bobcats: Raymond Felton, PG.  While Felton has not been nearly as successful as the two point guards taken before him he still holds his own out there.  He has struggled with his shooting which was to be expected in the early going but his 3-point shooting seems to be regressing as he has gone from shooting .358 his rookie year to .284 in his third season.  He is a solid scorer and good assist man who struggles when he is prevented from running the floor or being able to penetrate to the basket.  Grade: B-.

6. Portland Trail Blazers: Martell Webster, G/F.  This one was definitely a head scratcher when the Blazers made it given that players of Webster’s ilk have never been terribly successful coming straight from high school.  This pick is just now starting to pay some dividends for the Blazers as he has finally secured a starting spot and scores 10.7 points a game making his living being a long range bomber.  Webster still has a long way to go before the Blazers can feel justified with making this pick though.  Grade: C+.

7. Toronto Raptors: Charlie Villanueva, F.  Initially I thought this was a horrible pick given how Villanueva never came remotely close to living up to the hype he received at UConn.  However, this turned out fairly well for the Raptors as after a surprisingly strong rookie season that saw him score 13 points and grab 6.4 rebounds per game they promptly dealt him to the Bucks for T. J. Ford who was the PG the Raptors had been lacking since Damon Stoudamire left for Portland.  Unfortunately for the Bucks Villanueva has struggled to stay healthy and has yet to elevate his game to the next level after such a promising rookie campaign.  Grade: B-.

8. New York Knicks: Channing Frye, C.  Like Villanueva, Frye had an unexpectedly strong rookie season scoring 12.3 points and grabbing 5.8 rebounds per game.  Frye’s rookie season was so strong that the Knicks thought they finally had another big man to build around, that was until Isiah took over the reins and Frye wallowed under his coaching.  He has since been dealt to the Blazers and continues to struggle to find the productivity he had during his rookie season.  Grade: C.

9. Golden State Warriors: Ike Diogu, F.  Yet another player who looked like a budding star during his rookie season.  This pick was initially panned by most as Diogu was seen as a guy not quite big enough to play power forward and not quite quick or athletic enough to play small forward.  He raised a lot of eyebrows averaging 7 points and 3.3 rebounds in just 14.9 minutes per game.  But, after failing to earn more minutes during his second season he was dealt to Indiana where he has wallowed on the bench.  Grade: C.

10. Los Angeles Lakers: Andrew Bynum, C.  This one raised a few eyebrows as well when it was made.  Bynum was considered a very raw talent and a project player that would take a few years to develop and could go either way as there were a lot of questions about his dedication to conditioning and whether he had the drive to be a star in the NBA.  After two fairly forgettable seasons Bynum was having a breakout season averaging 13.1 points and 10.2 rebounds per game when he hurt his knee.  Bynum appears to have all of the makings of being the next big time low post player but it remains to be seen how he comes back from theis first dose of adversity.  Grade: B.